Doug ClintonThe Valuation PlaybookWhat’s my company worth? What makes you special? The two questions are inextricably intertwined. The more special your value add, the more your company’s potential value. It’s true at the individual level too. The value of your time or effort…Read more Venture Capital
Gene Munster, Brian BakerApple Readies for Its Jump Into Generative AIJoz, Apple's Head of Marketing, posted on X saying this year’s WWDC will be “Absolutely Incredible!” as in "AI". This will mark the first glimpse into the company's generative AI strategy and be a monumental day given it will usher in the biggest change in Apple's operating system design since the mid-80's point-and-tap/click interface. This will be a new communication interface driven by generative AI.Read more Apple
Gene Munster, Brian BakerDOJ Takes Aim at Apple, Largely Focused on ServicesIn 2020 Apple was more or less victorious over Epic games in defending the App Store. Now the DOJ is taking aim at Apple, largely focused on the iPhone’s role at promoting the sale of software and services and locking users into upgrading. The substance of the debate on shares of AAPL will focus on two topics: 1) What will the impact be to Apple’s Services segment? 2) How long will this take to sort out? While I believe this will take three years to sort out, I expect little will actually change, just like we saw 25 years ago with the DOJ going after Microsoft. Read more Apple
Gene Munster, Brian BakerAs Apple’s Focus on AI Intensifies, Margins Could Be PressuredThe news of Apple launching its own model and talking with Google and OpenAI to license a foundation model speaks to the degree that the company's growth North Star has changed over the past month. First, it was Project Titan getting canceled, now it’s considering doing something rare at Apple, license another company's tech stack. I believe Apple now gets it. AGI has the potential to have a profound impact on their business, and they need to add AI to the company's core competency of hardware, software, and services. To get there, I expect more investment, and a slight decline in margins in the near-term, and expanding margins long-term.Read more Apple, Google
Gene Munster, Brian BakerChina Clouds Shroud Apple’s ProgressApple's December quarter and guidance highlighted the impact China's macro slowdown had on Apple's business. That reality diluted investor optimism around the long-term progress the company is making when it comes to growing its active base, launching Vision Pro, and entering generative AI likely this spring. Read more Apple
Deepwater’s 2024 PredictionsOver the last seven years, we’ve made a habit of offering a few predictions for the year ahead. Here’s what we’re anticipating for 2024: IWO will outperform the S&P500. The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) will outperform the SPDR…Read more Apple, Google , Meta , Tesla
2023 Deepwater Holiday Gift GuideDeepwater’s Gift Guide: Our annual gift guide is part forecast, part real look at what our team is hoping to unwrap this season, and includes our predictions of the big launches and releases we’re expecting to see in 2024 (and…Read more Retail
Gene Munster, Brian BakerApple’s Profitable Flywheel is Rock SolidThe December outlook was better than it first appeared. Adjusting for the number of weeks in the quarter, growth in December should be 7% y/y compared to the Street that was at 5%. Additionally, the active installed base, Services, China, and gross margin showed surprising strength, evidence that the Apple revenue flywheel is rock solid. Read more Apple
Doug ClintonThe AI Bubble PlaybookThe Inevitable AI Bubble AI will create one of the largest technologically driven bubbles of all time, and we’re only in the early innings. Breakthrough technologies always invite bubbles. Alistair Nairn describes the similar pattern of new technologies in Engines…Read more Artificial Intelligence, Markets , Startup
Gene Munster, Brian BakerMeta Connect Showcases Gap With Apple and New AI Tools That Will Win User AttentionMeta's annual developer conference, Connect, highlighted that it shares the same vision with Apple when it comes to the potential of a new headset-computing paradigm, even if its flagship headset is light years behind (though priced far lower). Separately, Meta announced new AI products that will capture meaningful user attention.Read more Apple, Meta