Apple

Go deeper: For even more on Vision Pro, here’s my discussion with Gene on YouTube. Disclaimer 

Apple's December quarter and guidance highlighted the impact China's macro slowdown had on Apple's business. That reality diluted investor optimism around the long-term progress the company is making when it comes to growing its active base, launching Vision Pro, and entering generative AI likely this spring.

It's official, the world of spatial computing has begun with the launch of Vision Pro. The reviews have been consistent: groundbreaking tech with limited use cases. On launch day, the platform has over 600 apps available, already more than the 574 apps built over the past three years for Meta Quest. Importantly, Vision Pro's developer momentum is pointed in the right direction with about 60% of those apps outside of gaming, compared to about 30% on the Quest platform. Apple's goal is to motivate developers to ensure Vision Pro goes beyond gaming to make the device mainstream.

Over the last seven years, we’ve made a habit of offering a few predictions for the year ahead. Here’s what we’re anticipating for 2024: IWO will outperform the S&P500. The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) will outperform the SPDR…

The December outlook was better than it first appeared. Adjusting for the number of weeks in the quarter, growth in December should be 7% y/y compared to the Street that was at 5%. Additionally, the active installed base, Services, China, and gross margin showed surprising strength, evidence that the Apple revenue flywheel is rock solid.

The collective investing community is skeptical that Vision Pro will become a measurable part of Apple's business, because the utility of spatial computing is still unknown. As developers build exciting apps, demand and sales will increase.

The Financial Times has reported that Jony Ive, Sam Altman, and SoftBank are in talks to build an AI consumer device, likely a wearable. My guess is this never sees the light of day, but given the players involved it's worth considering its impact. Apple is in a good spot given the strength of its ecosystem makes it difficult for a one-off product to sway Apple users. Samsung on the other hand would be more at risk.

Meta's annual developer conference, Connect, highlighted that it shares the same vision with Apple when it comes to the potential of a new headset-computing paradigm, even if its flagship headset is light years behind (though priced far lower). Separately, Meta announced new AI products that will capture meaningful user attention.

Apple's dependency on China keeps investors up at night. Today Deepwater estimates that 40-45% of Apple's overall revenue is manufactured in China, and expects that to decline to 25-30% in five years. We believe half of the decline will be the direct result of production moving to India.

Apple excels at making consumer tech easy to use. The most recent example is the streamlined iPhone setup experience. Doing the little things right is why consumers who own one Apple product purchase additional products, locking those users in as lifelong customers.

Apple’s fall hardware event featured the new iPhone 15 family and updates to Apple Watch at prices unchanged from a year ago. While most of these updates were incremental, they’re enough to attract the 400m iPhone owners with phones more than 4 years old, which should return Apple to revenue growth in the December quarter. Most impressive was the addition of spatial photo and video capability on iPhone 15 Pro models, which lays the foundation for Vision Pro demand, due out early next year.

Shares of AAPL have recently declined by about 3% based on investor concern that an expanded iPhone ban for Chinese government employees and its affiliated companies will dampen Apple's sales. My math suggests the worst case scenario is a 1% negative impact on Apple's overall revenue in 2024. The bigger question is what's the long-term impact of the US and China moving in a different direction? The answer: Softness in China can be offset by strength in India.