iPhone 15 sales outlook
Apple began selling iPhone 15 today as well as delivering some of the pre-ordered iPhones. The best way to get a sense of demand is by looking at lead times on Apple’s global online stores. While not a science, I’ve noted that over the past decade, iPhones that have longer lead times tend to have stronger sales. Pre-orders started on September 15th, and usually, there is a surge in lead times in the initial few days.
We believe looking at lead times starting on day 4 is more relevant. Since then, Deepwater has tracked average lead times in eight countries increasing across all four new iPhone 15 models:
As a point of reference, a year ago, lead times for the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max were essentially the same 3-5 weeks, and that yielded iPhone growth in the September 2022 quarter of 9.8%. This September, investors are looking for iPhone to be down around 2%. This gap between lead times and revenue growth expectations makes me believe iPhone will meet or slightly exceed Street expectations for the September quarter.