Investing in Persistent GrowthMarkets occasionally misprice persistent growth opportunities, and that is the essence of great growth investing. Apple and Amazon are examples of the power of persistent growth. Shares of AAPL and AMZN are up 10x since 2012. The S&P 500 is…Read more Investment Philosophy , Technology Companies of Note Gene Munster, Brian BakerTesla’s Heavy Bet on the Future of Autonomy Is a Worthwhile Waiting GameTesla’s stock declined 12% on June earnings as profitability dipped and the timing of Robotaxi got pushed out by 6-12 months. Musk said it best when he boiled down the TSLA investment case to a simple question; Do you believe the company will deliver on the promise of autonomy? Our view is that potential is within reach, and by late 2027 we should start to see FSD adoption, and the fleet business begin to build. Beyond FSD, the company looks to add licensing of FSD to other car makers and scale Optimus, both of which will take 5-10 years to add to the bottom line.Read more Tesla Gene Munster, Brian BakerCan AI Predict the Future?We asked Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok 15 questions about upcoming events to determine which models are most effective at looking into the future. This note is centered on “predictions” in the balance of 2024, which we’ll cover as they…Read more Artificial Intelligence, Google , Twitter Gene Munster, Brian BakerAI Benchmarking: Evaluating Model Performance on Subjective, Complex, and Predictive QueriesWe tested ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok and Claude to determine which models provide the most clear and accurate responses. Our theory is not all foundation models are created equal. The two takeaways from our first benchmarking are: first, there is no single best model; certain models are better at handling specific queries. Second, there generally are two model "personalities"; with Grok as the only model with a distinct "personality". As for the what does this mean for search question: the answer is Google will win. What is most important for the future of ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude is their ability to allow third parties to create unique, deep, and conversational experiences that deliver insights beyond search. That doesn't exist today. Read more Artificial Intelligence, Google Gene Munster, Brian BakerApple’s AI Integration Will Boost Device Sales and MarginsApple made good on expectations, announcing generative AI integration across its software and applications. Accessing these features will require 85% of Apple users to upgrade some or all of their devices over the next few years. This means revenue growth in FY25 and FY26 will likely be +10%, ahead of the current 6% and 4% expectations, which should be a positive for AAPL.Read more Apple, Artificial Intelligence Gene Munster, Brian BakerEarly Robotaxi Event PreviewWhile it's still more than two months away, I'm sharing my early predictions for the "Robotaxi Event". I expect three vehicles to be revealed, including Robotaxi, Model 2 and Cybervan (tailored to the ride-hailing vision). I expect initial production ramps could start as soon as summer of 2025, with FSD approval playing a large factor in the timing. These vehicles fit into Elon's vision that they need to solve autonomy to unlock shareholder value. Read more Autonomous Vehicles, Ridesharing , Tesla Gene Munster, Brian BakerA Clearer Picture of Apple’s China Business EmergesThe most recent data coming out of China gives us a better picture of what is going on in Apple's China business. iPhone sales in Mainland China were likely down 5% y/y in Mar-24, better than Apple's reported 8% decline in Greater China. When Cook said iPhone grew in China in Mar-24, he was likely talking about units, not revenue. In other words, this means China's non-iPhone segment was down 12%, notably lower than the global average of Apple's non-iPhone revenue which was up 4% y/y. Read more Apple Gene Munster, Brian BakeriPad “Let Loose” Event Reveals Pace of Silicon Development Has QuickenedThree of the four iPads got long awaited updates including thinner design, bigger screens, faster chips, and more memory. These changes will jump start the segment's growth in June and September after being down for 9 of the past 10 quarters. Looking into 2025, I expect the iPad to be on a steady decline of around 2% as the segment is impacted by the reality of infrequent upgrades. The big surprise announcement was the pace that Apple is introducing new chips, a sign that the company will use hardware as a competitive advantage once they get more into the AI race. Read more Apple Load More Go Deeper Philosophy Learn how we think. From time to time, we find it helpful to articulate our investment philosophies in writing. Read The Newsletter Our work sent directly to your inbox. Subscribe to our newsletter for a regular summary of our work, along with links to stuff we’re reading. Subscribe Deepwater TV Insights, interviews, and debates on topics we find relevant to growth investing. Watch