Themes

Our AI series continues with what investors need to know about how large language models (LLMs) work to make informed AI investments. How ChatGPT Works To make intelligent investments, an investor should have an understanding of how a company’s product…

At Deepwater, our mission is to profit from where the world is going. This week, Gene got a preview of that future with a demo of Apple’s Vision Pro mixed reality headset. In this episode of Deepwater TV, Andrew and…

We don’t really know how AI models work, and we may never fully understand them. That was one of the recurring ideas from hours of interviews I watched of several different AI company CEOs. On its face, the inability of…

Apple made good on the rumor mill, announcing its first spatial computing headset, Apple Vision Pro. Available in early 2024 and priced at $3,499, it is at least $500 more expensive than most were expecting. The keynote left me with more questions than answers. After an hour-long demo my view of the product expanded. Spatial computing is a big deal. Yes, it's very expense and, yes, the selection of apps will be limited early on — but those barriers will disappear over time. Spatial computing is just too powerful not to go mainstream. I believe it will account for 10% of all Apple sales in 2030.

   

It's been eight years since Apple jumped into a new product category. On June 5 that will likely change when Apple is expected to preview its $3,000 developer version of a mixed reality headset at WWDC. Many investors are skeptical about the prospects of the device given headsets are currently a solution looking for a problem. I believe the trend of more immersive consumer tech experiences will continue, which should pave the way for a robust headset market. By 2030, I believe the wearables/glasses segment could account for 10% of Apple's sales (assuming they don't release a car), a business similar in size to Apple's Mac and iPad businesses today.

At Google’s annual developer conference, the company gave long awaited details on their plans to make AI the backbone of their products. The most significant announcement is the company will overhaul the search results page, making it an important consumer AI starting point. While investors will have concerns about the upcoming decline in Google's advertising blue links, I believe the opportunity for Google to increase their reach into our lives through AI outweighs the near-term (2 years) ad revenue risks.

For the March quarter, Apple beat estimates and guided revenue slightly below the Street for the June quarter. Despite the soft guide, shares of AAPL traded up 2% in after-hours. I believe the stock's strength is evidence that investors are putting more weight on Apple's active device base which grew in the quarter to over 2B despite products revenue being down 5% y/y. A growing base means the Apple product flywheel is working which is the foundation for the Apple investment case to shift to a consumer staples company that should yield a higher multiple. On top of that, AI and India represent untapped opportunities for the company.

Apple reports March results on May 4th. Outside of the typical focus on iPhone and Services revenue and guidance there will be increasing attention on the company's active installed base, which grew 8% y/y in the Dec-22 quarter. A growing base means the Apple product flywheel is working. That base is the foundation for the Apple investment case to shift to a consumer staples company that should yield a higher multiple. On top of that, Apple is making meaningful progress in AI, a dynamic that is under-appreciated by investors.

March quarter investor takeaways were dominated by management commentary suggesting AWS's June quarter revenue growth would decline for the seventh consecutive quarter. While the focus on AWS is understandable, accounting for 118% of operating income in the quarter, it’s worth remembering that Amazon’s long-term growth story is more than AWS.

The year of efficiency is already working as evidenced by March revenue exceeding estimates by 2% and EPS by 9%. The efficiency page will turn, and investors will soon be thinking about 2024, when the company’s opportunity in AI will be anchored by its current impressive DAU growth. That combo should start a flywheel of AI driving engagement and ultimately increasing revenue growth.

This was a big week for AI. OpenAI showed off GPT-4, a measurable step forward in terms of accuracy and creative output compared to GPT-3; Baidu announced its chatbot Ernie to mixed reviews; and Microsoft announced AI integration into the Microsoft 365 suite including Word, PowerPoint, and Excel will be available later this year. Big tech is racing to capitalize, and the economic benefit of AI will be spread across a handful of the biggest companies.