Investing in Persistent Growth Markets occasionally misprice persistent growth opportunities, and that is the essence of great growth investing. Read More Companies of Note Gene Munster, Brian BakerThe EV and Autonomy Winter Shows Signs of ThawingTesla posted a surprising profit margin in the September quarter while guiding the December quarter and 2025 deliveries well ahead of expectations. Additionally, I believe Cybercab will be a measurable boost to deliveries, accounting for about 15% of deliveries by 2032. Putting these together, we're seeing signs that EV growth is returning, the most critical piece to the 3-year Tesla investment case.Read more Tesla Gene Munster, Brian BakerThe ‘Is Tesla a Tech or Car Company?’ Debate Is OverOn the surface, the waiting game will continue for TSLA investors as the Cybercab and Optimus are still years away. Beneath the surface, the "We, Robot" event posed a challenge for traditional automakers as Tesla showcased an innovation edge that puts an end to the "Is Tesla a tech or car company?" debate.Read more Autonomous Vehicles, Ridesharing, Tesla Gene Munster, Brian BakerThe FSD Waiting Game Is Worth the WaitI’ve had a week to process the “We, Robot” event, including conversations with several industry players and am left with 4 takeaways. 1) The world needs autonomy. 2) It’s going to take longer than I thought to get there. 3) Once the Robotaxi fleet is nationwide, it could add +20% to Tesla’s operating income. 4) Tesla's biggest opportunity lies in unsupervised FSD driving more consumer sales.Read more Autonomous Vehicles, Ridesharing, Tesla Gene Munster, Brian Baker“We, Robot” Event PreviewTesla's "We, Robot" event is Thursday, October 10 at 10p ET. The two key topics orbiting the event include the number of vehicles they'll announce and timing of production. I'm looking for 3 vehicles (most are expecting two) and I believe we'll only hear production timing on the Model 2, which I expect to begin late in 2025. This timing is a few months later than what Elon's comments suggested on the June earnings call. The one wild card could be the more affordable Model 2 is actually a stripped down Model 3, which would be viewed as a negative by investors. Read more Autonomous Vehicles, Ridesharing, Tesla Gene Munster, Brian BakerTesla Deliveries Return To GrowthThe fact that TSLA initially dropped 6% on the September deliveries, which were essentially in line with the Street, suggests there was something more concerning in the report, possibly related to inventories. I have a different view and see the results as a win for the company given they mark a return to growth for the first time in nine months, despite multiple headwinds. As for next year's deliveries, the timing of a new model will have a measurable impact. Beyond 2025, growth should ramp to above 20%.Read more Tesla Gene Munster, Brian BakerJustification for an iPhone SupercycleI believe iPhone revenue will grow at 15% in FY25, compared to the Street's estimate of 7%. For FY26, I expect 17% growth versus the Street’s 8%. The most significant factor in my estimate is my belief that 8% of the iPhone installed base will upgrade early in FY25, and 14% in FY26. However, the dark side to the supercycle is I estimate iPhone revenue will be down 5% year-over-year in both FY27 and FY28.Read more Apple Gene Munster, Brian BakerUpdated EV Adoption EstimatesThis note provides Deepwater’s updated timeline of EV adoption in the United States. Previously, we had estimated that by 2030 50% of new car sales in the US would be fully electric. We now believe by 2030 only 25% of new car sales will be EVs. We expect the industry to cross the 50% threshold between 2035 and 2036. As for Tesla, we're expecting total 2030 deliveries of 4.5m, compared to the Street at 3.6m (FactSet).Read more Autonomous Vehicles, Ridesharing, Tesla Load More Go Deeper Philosophy Learn how we think. From time to time, we find it helpful to articulate our investment philosophies in writing. Read The Newsletter Our work sent directly to your inbox. Subscribe to our newsletter for a regular summary of our work, along with links to stuff we’re reading. Subscribe Deepwater TV Insights, interviews, and debates on topics we find relevant to growth investing. Watch