Deepwater’s Gift Guide: Our annual tradition continues! This year’s gift guide is part forecast, part wishlist, showcasing the best tech-forward and innovative holiday gifts for 2024. Whether you’re shopping for friends, family, or yourself, this list is sure to delight.…

Jensen Huang's marathon hour-and-a-half CES keynote emphasized that we are still in the early stages of the AI hardware buildout. He highlighted that scaling laws are holding, Agentic AI will soon drive exponential workloads requiring Nvidia chips, physical AI is still nascent but positioned as part of a 10-year investment phase for AI hardware, and consumer AI hardware is expected to arrive in 2025.

Continuing our annual market predictions into the 9th year, here’s what we think will happen in 2025: The Nasdaq will see two 10% pullbacks, and still finish the year higher than it started – We still believe we are in…

The AI trade still has room to grow as the spotlight gradually shifts toward software, underscored by investors' reactions to Salesforce's comments following their most recent quarter. The bottom line is I believe that while software companies have yet to see significant AI-driven revenue acceleration, investors are increasingly confident that day will come. This is good news for my view that AI will continue to be the catalyst driving the market higher, until it eventually bursts.

The odds of Tesla successfully capitalizing on autonomy increased with the news that Trump's transition team is planning to make regulating self-driving vehicles a top priority. Tesla holds a unique position, as it can pursue autonomy through a combination of two business models: asset-light, focusing on vehicle hardware sales, or asset-heavy. I believe these strategies could significantly boost Tesla's operating profit by the end of the decade, with a wide range of potential outcomes—anywhere from a 10% to a 155% increase, depending on which model they pursue. My prediction: by 2030, autonomy will account for 40% of Tesla's operating income.

Today, Waymo alone is too small for Alphabet investors to care about. However, the management team is sharing more about their rapid progress, plans to expand operations, and has raised additional outside capital. I've modeled the business and found it to be surprisingly attractive. I believe Alphabet will spin out Waymo in the next 2-4 years, with a potential valuation of $350B to $850B by 2030, which could add between 12-28% to GOOG's current market cap, depending on Alphabet's ownership percentage.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the $7,500 EV tax credit will likely end in the US next year. While this outcome has been largely anticipated since late summer, Musk's relationship with Trump left open the possibility that the incentive might be preserved. As a result, deliveries this quarter are likely to exceed expectations as demand is pulled forward. For next year, I believe the company will still meet the Street's 14% y/y growth expectation, which is below Elon’s recent projections of 20–30% growth. Either way, delivery growth is expected to accelerate from being flat in 2024 to 12% in 2025.

The Nasdaq was up about 5% this week following the election, versus the Mag 7 up 7%. Below I outline what I believe to be the reasons for the move and what it means for tech investors over the next…