Today, Waymo alone is too small for Alphabet investors to care about. However, the management team is sharing more about their rapid progress, plans to expand operations, and has raised additional outside capital. I've modeled the business and found it to be surprisingly attractive. I believe Alphabet will spin out Waymo in the next 2-4 years, with a potential valuation of $350B to $850B by 2030, which could add between 12-28% to GOOG's current market cap, depending on Alphabet's ownership percentage.

The odds of Tesla successfully capitalizing on autonomy increased with the news that Trump's transition team is planning to make regulating self-driving vehicles a top priority. Tesla holds a unique position, as it can pursue autonomy through a combination of two business models: asset-light, focusing on vehicle hardware sales, or asset-heavy. I believe these strategies could significantly boost Tesla's operating profit by the end of the decade, with a wide range of potential outcomes—anywhere from a 10% to a 155% increase, depending on which model they pursue. My prediction: by 2030, autonomy will account for 40% of Tesla's operating income.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the $7,500 EV tax credit will likely end in the US next year. While this outcome has been largely anticipated since late summer, Musk's relationship with Trump left open the possibility that the incentive might be preserved. As a result, deliveries this quarter are likely to exceed expectations as demand is pulled forward. For next year, I believe the company will still meet the Street's 14% y/y growth expectation, which is below Elon’s recent projections of 20–30% growth. Either way, delivery growth is expected to accelerate from being flat in 2024 to 12% in 2025.

The Nasdaq was up about 5% this week following the election, versus the Mag 7 up 7%. Below I outline what I believe to be the reasons for the move and what it means for tech investors over the next…

Apple’s September quarter results reflected stronger than expected iPhone sales and gave guidance for December that suggested top line growth will essentially be unchanged from September. In other words, Apple Intelligence will not accelerate growth in the December quarter, a reality that is disappointing to the "iPhone supercycle" camp. I believe once these features are in place, and available worldwide, the supercycle will begin, likely in the Jun-25 quarter.

Google’s stock jumped +5% on its September quarter results largely due to the evidence that AI Overviews are having a positive impact on Search revenue. This topic has been the bullseye for investors given the potential that generative AI could displace Google's bread and butter Search business long-term. Additionally, AI is benefiting Google Cloud as growth accelerated and margins improved. I believe Google remains one of the best positioned companies to benefit from AI over the next few years.

Tesla posted a surprising profit margin in the September quarter while guiding the December quarter and 2025 deliveries well ahead of expectations. Additionally, I believe Cybercab will be a measurable boost to deliveries, accounting for about 15% of deliveries by 2032. Putting these together, we're seeing signs that EV growth is returning, the most critical piece to the 3-year Tesla investment case.