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Gene Munster, Brian Baker
The ‘Is Tesla a Tech or Car Company?’ Debate Is Over
On the surface, the waiting game will continue for TSLA investors as the Cybercab and Optimus are still years away. Beneath the surface, the "We, Robot" event posed a challenge for traditional automakers as Tesla showcased an innovation edge that puts an end to the "Is Tesla a tech or car company?" debate.
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Ridesharing
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
“We, Robot” Event Preview
Tesla's "We, Robot" event is Thursday, October 10 at 10p ET. The two key topics orbiting the event include the number of vehicles they'll announce and timing of production. I'm looking for 3 vehicles (most are expecting two) and I believe we'll only hear production timing on the Model 2, which I expect to begin late in 2025. This timing is a few months later than what Elon's comments suggested on the June earnings call. The one wild card could be the more affordable Model 2 is actually a stripped down Model 3, which would be viewed as a negative by investors.
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Ridesharing
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Updated EV Adoption Estimates
This note provides Deepwater’s updated timeline of EV adoption in the United States. Previously, we had estimated that by 2030 50% of new car sales in the US would be fully electric. We now believe by 2030 only 25% of new car sales will be EVs. We expect the industry to cross the 50% threshold between 2035 and 2036. As for Tesla, we're expecting total 2030 deliveries of 4.5m, compared to the Street at 3.6m (FactSet).
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Ridesharing
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Smart Glasses Opportunity Bigger Than Spatial Computing
Meta and Google are shifting their development focus away from Virtual Reality (VR) and Mixed Reality (MR) to ambient computing in the form of smart glasses given the potential that artificial intelligence adds to the form factor. I believe the annual market for smart glasses will reach hundreds of millions of units over the next decade, leading Apple to refocus its Spatial Computing initiatives to be more in line with Meta and Google wearables.
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Apple
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Artificial Intelligence
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Google
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Meta
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Spatial Computing
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Virtual Reality
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Can AI Predict the Future?
We asked Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok 15 questions about upcoming events to determine which models are most effective at looking into the future. This note is centered on “predictions” in the balance of 2024, which we’ll cover as they…
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Artificial Intelligence
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Google
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Twitter
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
AI Benchmarking: Evaluating Model Performance on Subjective, Complex, and Predictive Queries
We tested ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok and Claude to determine which models provide the most clear and accurate responses. Our theory is not all foundation models are created equal. The two takeaways from our first benchmarking are: first, there is no single best model; certain models are better at handling specific queries. Second, there generally are two model "personalities"; with Grok as the only model with a distinct "personality". As for the what does this mean for search question: the answer is Google will win. What is most important for the future of ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude is their ability to allow third parties to create unique, deep, and conversational experiences that deliver insights beyond search. That doesn't exist today.
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Artificial Intelligence
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Google
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Apple’s AI Integration Will Boost Device Sales and Margins
Apple made good on expectations, announcing generative AI integration across its software and applications. Accessing these features will require 85% of Apple users to upgrade some or all of their devices over the next few years. This means revenue growth in FY25 and FY26 will likely be +10%, ahead of the current 6% and 4% expectations, which should be a positive for AAPL.
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Apple
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Artificial Intelligence
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Early Robotaxi Event Preview
While it's still more than two months away, I'm sharing my early predictions for the "Robotaxi Event". I expect three vehicles to be revealed, including Robotaxi, Model 2 and Cybervan (tailored to the ride-hailing vision). I expect initial production ramps could start as soon as summer of 2025, with FSD approval playing a large factor in the timing. These vehicles fit into Elon's vision that they need to solve autonomy to unlock shareholder value.
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Ridesharing
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Meta’s AI Investments Will Pay off in the Long Run
Shares of Meta traded down 11% on the March quarter guidance that the company is entering into a multi-year investment cycle starting with AI capex in 2024 tracking to be 12% higher than previous expectations. We believe investors are missing the point. Meta has a golden opportunity in the next decade to leverage its data and build AI tools and products for billions of users, advertisers, and businesses.
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Artificial Intelligence
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Meta
Mike Olson
GenAI and the Future of Content
We may be approaching the day when a $200M Pixar-quality movie, which typically takes four years to make, will be created in six months for $20K (aka, 0.01% of the budget and less than 10% of the time.) I…
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Artificial Intelligence
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Venture Capital
Gene Munster
Deepwater Frontier Tech Survey 2024
Deepwater’s first annual Frontier Tech Survey measures the American public’s viewpoint on emerging technologies, including AI, Electrification & Automation, the Creator Economy, and Health-Tech. Key Takeaways: AI – General usage and awareness remains low; opinions are mixed when it comes…
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Apple
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Artificial Intelligence
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Augmented Reality
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Frontier Tech
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Google
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Health
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Meta
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Microsoft
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Netflix
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Neurable
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Neurotech
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Nvidia
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Redwood Materials
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Spatial Computing
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Tech Addiction
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Tesla
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TikTok
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Virtual Reality
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Wearables
Andrew Murphy
48 Hours With Vision Pro: Our Thesis on Spatial Computing
Go deeper: For even more on Vision Pro, here’s my discussion with Gene on YouTube. Disclaimer
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Apple
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Spatial Computing
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