Google

Today, Waymo alone is too small for Alphabet investors to care about. However, the management team is sharing more about their rapid progress, plans to expand operations, and has raised additional outside capital. I've modeled the business and found it to be surprisingly attractive. I believe Alphabet will spin out Waymo in the next 2-4 years, with a potential valuation of $350B to $850B by 2030, which could add between 12-28% to GOOG's current market cap, depending on Alphabet's ownership percentage.

Google’s stock jumped +5% on its September quarter results largely due to the evidence that AI Overviews are having a positive impact on Search revenue. This topic has been the bullseye for investors given the potential that generative AI could displace Google's bread and butter Search business long-term. Additionally, AI is benefiting Google Cloud as growth accelerated and margins improved. I believe Google remains one of the best positioned companies to benefit from AI over the next few years.

Meta and Google are shifting their development focus away from Virtual Reality (VR) and Mixed Reality (MR) to ambient computing in the form of smart glasses given the potential that artificial intelligence adds to the form factor. I believe the annual market for smart glasses will reach hundreds of millions of units over the next decade, leading Apple to refocus its Spatial Computing initiatives to be more in line with Meta and Google wearables.

We asked Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok 15 questions about upcoming events to determine which models are most effective at looking into the future. This note is centered on “predictions” in the balance of 2024, which we’ll cover as they…

We tested ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok and Claude to determine which models provide the most clear and accurate responses. Our theory is not all foundation models are created equal. The two takeaways from our first benchmarking are: first, there is no single best model; certain models are better at handling specific queries. Second, there generally are two model "personalities"; with Grok as the only model with a distinct "personality". As for the what does this mean for search question: the answer is Google will win. What is most important for the future of ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude is their ability to allow third parties to create unique, deep, and conversational experiences that deliver insights beyond search. That doesn't exist today.

Shares of GOOG were up 11% on March earnings driven by a combination of growth acceleration in Search and GCP, along with an outlook for improving margins. Additionally, the company is making massive investments in generative AI, as evidenced by capex increasing 91% y/y. In short, the two biggest concerns for Google investors, what the future of Search will look like and is the company moving fast enough in AI, were put to ease for the moment. Long-term, I believe Search revenue is here to stay and AI will be a material net positive for the company.

The news of Apple launching its own model and talking with Google and OpenAI to license a foundation model speaks to the degree that the company's growth North Star has changed over the past month. First, it was Project Titan getting canceled, now it’s considering doing something rare at Apple, license another company's tech stack. I believe Apple now gets it. AGI has the potential to have a profound impact on their business, and they need to add AI to the company's core competency of hardware, software, and services. To get there, I expect more investment, and a slight decline in margins in the near-term, and expanding margins long-term.

Deepwater’s first annual Frontier Tech Survey measures the American public’s viewpoint on emerging technologies, including AI, Electrification & Automation, the Creator Economy, and Health-Tech. Key Takeaways: AI – General usage and awareness remains low; opinions are mixed when it comes…

Over the last seven years, we’ve made a habit of offering a few predictions for the year ahead. Here’s what we’re anticipating for 2024: IWO will outperform the S&P500. The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) will outperform the SPDR…

Google's been a little slow getting up to speed in the AI game. While the company's video preview of Gemini was edited, it still served as a reminder to investors that Google is one of three companies leading in the AI race. Gemini's capabilities are impressive given they are the most advanced display of multimodality, which brings text, voice, and images into the generative interface. Previously these models (GPT, Claude, Grok, Llama) have predominately been interacted with by text-only. By keeping pace with OpenAI, Google's in a favorable position to evolve Search and capitalize on generative AI.

June quarter results showed that Search is still king at Google despite investor concerns that Bing would steal some of its momentum. In the next year, I expect Google to show the fruits of seven years of investing in AI to create a new Search experience that will increase engagement and revenue growth, a similar dynamic to what we saw a decade ago with the shift from desktop to mobile.

At Google’s annual developer conference, the company gave long awaited details on their plans to make AI the backbone of their products. The most significant announcement is the company will overhaul the search results page, making it an important consumer AI starting point. While investors will have concerns about the upcoming decline in Google's advertising blue links, I believe the opportunity for Google to increase their reach into our lives through AI outweighs the near-term (2 years) ad revenue risks.