Focus on Musk's guidance
Formal guidance calls for 1.8m deliveries which implies delivery growth will decrease to 37% y/y in 2023 from 40% in 2022. That said, on the conference call, Musk threw the formal guide out the window when he revealed the company’s internal target is closer to 2.0m deliveries this year. If Tesla meets the internal delivery target for 2023, delivery growth will increase from 40% in 2022 to 50% in 2023. My sense is the year will end closer to 2.0m deliveries given the adrenaline rush that orders recently got with price cuts. To that point, Musk commented that orders are currently outpacing production by 2x. While that pace won’t remain throughout the year, it sets the first half up for 60% y/y growth and the back half closer to 40%.