Tesla unveils the Model Y tonight at 8PM PT. You can watch the stream here. The Model Y is important because entering the SUV/cross over market effectively doubles Tesla’s addressable market, but we caution it will likely take two years before the $39k model will be available.  Most important, EVs are the future, and the Model Y is continued evidence that Tesla is the fastest-innovating EV company. Here are our expectations for tonight’s event:

Standard Model Y Specs:

• $39,000 RWD (Jaguar I-PACE $69,500, Audi e-tron $74,800)
• 62 kWh battery pack  (I-PACE 90 kWh, e-tron 95kWh)
• 230 EPA mile range (I-PACE  234 EPA, e-tron 220 EPA)
• 0-60 in 5.9 seconds (I-PACE 4.5 secs, e-tron 5.5 secs )
• 0.25 drag coefficient  (I-PACE 0.29, e-tron 0.30).
• 187 inches long (I-PACE 184 inches, e-tron 193 inches)
• Model Y shares 75% of the same parts as Model 3.

Availability:

• Volume production likely a year and a half out.
• A few hundred produced by the end of 2019, and volume production by end of 2020.
• First configuration available end of 2019, start of 2020 will likely be long-range, RWD motor, $47k, 285m range.
• The $39k version likely available spring of 2021.

Standard Model Y Pricing:

• Likely to be RWD at $39,000. Long range dual motor likely at $51k. Our methodology uses Model 3 pricing as a guideline.
• Model Y will be ~10% larger and ~10% more expensive.

Market:

• In terms of units, SUV/cross over market is about 45% of US market, we estimate the mid-sized sedan market at 20%.

Reservations:

• As a point of reference, Model 3 preorders the first week after the unveil was 325k, the peak was 455k.
• We don’t expect Tesla to disclose reservation numbers given they’ll likely lag Model 3.
• Our best guess is they’ll take in 175k reservations in the first two weeks (before the end of  Mar-19).
• Since lots of early adopter Tesla fans bought Model 3, we expect Model Y preorders to be significantly less Model 3.
• Consumers are more negative on the value of preordering given volume production is likely a year and a half away, and the base model is likely 2 years out.

Deposits Cash Effect:

• We expect 175k reservations in the first two weeks (before the end of  Mar-19).
• Deposit consensus is $1k, we expect it to be $2k for cash flow reasons. Model 3 was $1k, Model S was $2.5k, Model X was $5k.
• We expect Mar-19 cash flow from reservations would be $350m ($2,000 times 175k orders). They may offer signature series deposit at a higher level.

“One Last Thing” – Model S & X Refresh:

• Although Musk said on the Dec-18 earnings call that there are “no plans” for an S & X refresh, we believe it’s likely they’ll announce refresh models tonight.
• Range increases by about 20%.  Highest range Model S goes to 400 from 335 miles today. Model X goes to 350 from 295 miles today.
• Faster charging. Average charge time at Tesla Supercharger likely 15 minutes, down from 30 minutes today. We expect a real-time Supercharger V3 demo.
• Model S & X pricing likely to increase by about 5% for the highest range models.

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