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Jensen’s CES Keynote Message: We’re Still Early in the AI Hardware Buildout
Nvidia
Jensen Huang's marathon hour-and-a-half CES keynote emphasized that we are still in the early stages of the AI hardware buildout. He highlighted that scaling laws are holding, Agentic AI will soon drive exponential workloads requiring Nvidia chips, physical AI is still nascent but positioned as part of a 10-year investment phase for AI hardware, and consumer AI hardware is expected to arrive in 2025.

Key Takeaways

Demand for Nvidia's chips may remain stronger than most predict over the next couple of years.
Agentic AI will transform work and drive demand for Nvidia’s hardware.
Physical AI is poised to drive Nvidia’s long-term growth, starting with autonomous cars and robotics.
Nvidia aims to dominate both the data center and desktop markets.
Other observations: While there was no update on the Blackwell backlog, Jensen remains optimistic about Blackwell demand.
1

Scaling laws and demand for compute

Jensen emphasized that scaling laws are “empirical” and will persist, as the challenges of model pre-training, post-training, and test-time computation can only be addressed with increased compute.

Why it matters: This is significant because if scaling is driving “enormous demand” for Blackwell today, and if scaling laws continue to hold in the coming years, demand for Nvidia’s chips may remain stronger than most predict over the next couple of years.

2

Agentic AI and the workforce

Jensen sounded like Salesforce’s CEO, Marc Benioff, predicting that Agentic AI will transform the workforce, with AI agents working alongside humans. HR departments of the future will function partially as IT departments.

Why it matters: AI agents require substantial computational resources, processing tokens at high volumes. Asking an agent a single question activates multiple models, driving computational demands “through the roof” and further increasing the demand for Nvidia hardware.

3

Physical AI is part of the long-term growth story

Physical AI refers to AI systems that can understand physics and gravity, advancing robotics and industrial AI just as Llama 3 has advanced enterprise applications. Jensen announced a new platform, “Cosmos,” designed to build physical AI systems. He predicted that the first multi-trillion-dollar use case will be autonomous cars, followed by robots.

Why it matters: This is part of the company’s 10-year growth strategy. While physical AI is still a few years away, it holds significant long-term potential. Currently, their automotive business accounts for less than 3% of sales, with a $5B annual run rate, up about 25% from last year. Within three years, physical AI is expected to begin ramping up, and within 10 years, it could become a major revenue driver.

4

Windows-based Nvidia-powered PCs and Project DIGITS

Jensen announced that Windows-based PCs powered by Nvidia will be released this year, along with a new desktop supercomputer, Project DIGITS.

Why it matters: Nvidia aims to dominate both the data center and desktop markets.

5

Other keynote observations

  1. No Update on Blackwell Backlog: There was no update on the key topic investors were anticipating—the size of Blackwell’s backlog. During the last earnings call, the company stated, “Blackwell demand is expected to exceed supply for several quarters in fiscal 2026.”
  2. Jensen’s Confidence: Granted, he’s always bullish, so take this observation for what it’s worth: reading between the lines, if half of what Jensen said comes true, the substance of AI will exceed the hype. Last night, Jensen was giddy. His bullish remarks on Blackwell demand and his Vegas-inspired leather jacket suggest optimism about the January quarter and its outlook.
  3. Perplexity Reinventing Search: Jensen mentioned that Perplexity is reinventing search. While they are an Nvidia customer (so take the claim with a grain of salt), the comment was noteworthy.
  4. No Mention of Optimus: In the humanoid robot section of the keynote, 14 robots were highlighted, but Optimus was notably absent. Perhaps Musk is pursuing an independent path to power Optimus.

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