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iPhone X Availability; U.S. In-Store 97% on Christmas Day

Conclusion. For the third week in a row, iPhone X supply improved materially for in-store U.S. and remained essentially unchanged online (8 countries). We now believe iPhone X will reach global supply demand equilibrium in mid January. This means the Mar-18 outlook will have a small bump up from December iPhone X demand getting pushed into the Mar-18 quarter. The bigger story is that the Street is underestimating the positive ASP impact from the iPhone X over the next few quarters, which should play out as a positive to the Apple story. Our FY18 overall iPhone ASP is $740 vs. the Street at $705.

Online lead times now globally at 4 days. We noted essentially no change in global iPhone X lead times (8 countries), exiting the week (Dec 25th) at 4 days, compared to 3 days at the beginning of the week. For the week (Dec 18th-Dec 25th) we measured a decline to an average of 5 days, unchanged from an average of 5 days in the previous week (Nov 11th-Dec 17th).

Apple Store availability at 75% up from 44% the previous week and 25% early in December. We continued our daily monitoring of iPhone X availability, capturing 2224 daily in-store data points for 139 of the 271 U.S. Apple retail stores. Availability at U.S. Apple Stores increased to an average of 75% (Dec 18th-Dec 25th) compared to 44% in the previous week (Dec 11th-Dec 17th) and 25% Dec 4th-8th. We saw a dramatic ramp during the week, starting at 56% availability and ending at 97%.

Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and augmented reality. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio.  Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.

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