Cybertruck is priced above the market, coming in at 25% above most people’s expectations across all configurations. Compared to the industry leading EV truck, the Ford F-150 Lightning, the Cybertruck is about $10k more expensive for each trim. The company is making the right decision to price it above the market given its undeniable wow factor, and early adopters are willing to pay premiums to be in the first 50k deliveries. On the October earnings call, Tesla said there are over 1M people on the waitlist, with some analysts estimating it’s closer to 2M. I believe that waiting list will decline to sub 500k over the next six months given the reality that this is an expensive vehicle.
Elon knows the impact price has on demand and is signaling to the market to be patient when it comes to deliveries ramping. For next year I expect sales of 35k trucks, stepping up to 125k in 2025 and 250k in 2026.
This means that in 2024, Cybertruck will account for just under 2% of deliveries and 5% in 2025. As a point of reference, the Model S and X combined account for about 4% of sales.
My sense is that by the end of 2025, Cybertruck pricing will come down by 25% or more as production efficiency improves. At that point sales should start to ramp. That means the first big year for Cybertruck will likely be 2026.