Themes

Special thanks to David Kroger, Steve Van Sloun, and Austin Bohlig for their work on the Non-Tech AI Portfolio.

The sickness adoption hurdle. The timing of most tech adoption curves can be anticipated by a combination of cost and utility. The lower the cost, the higher the utility, the faster the adoption. We define mass adoption as 500m or…

This note was originally published on Barron’s. Over the next several decades, human labor will be augmented then replaced by robots.

If we had to sum up our investment approach in one word, it would be non-incremental. Venture capital is a power law game: the vast majority of venture returns come only from a few investments. We believe we have to…

At Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June, the company announced ARKit for developers to create augmented reality-driven apps. Apple describes ARKit as a platform that, “combines device motion tracking, camera scene capture, advanced scene processing, and display conveniences to simplify…

We’ve updated our 5-year cost of ownership study comparing a Tesla Model 3 to a Toyota Camry. The comparison gives us a look at how the Model 3 cost compares to a mass-market sedan. In 2017, our model concluded that…

Why do we think that some combination of AR wearables will eventually replace our smartphones? In short: because the customer is always right. Or, more specifically, solving customer problems is the best way to create value. I’ve been a regular…

A Nod To Greg Packer. For those who were tuned in, June 29th 2007 lived up to the hype. Apple had been aggressive with TV advertising going into the iPhone launch, resulting in average lines of 350 people at the…

Written by guest author Lindsay Boyajian at Conductor Since Amazon announced its acquisition of Whole Foods, the running joke across social media has been, “Jeff Bezos said to Alexa, ‘Buy me something on Whole Foods,’ and Alexa bought Whole Foods.” This quip highlights the…

We are publishing our Apple model with forecasts out to 2022 including Apple Glasses, an AR wearable, starting in 2020. By year end of 2022, we see net revenue of $292B and EPS of $13.20, up from $221B and $8.74 in FY17…

We recently published a six-part series on the future of robotics including a detailed outlook through 2025 on the five major robotics categories: Industrial, Commercial, Domestic, Military, and Social. Each part highlighted our thesis, outlook and market size for each category of robotics hardware, but…

At the Viva Tech conference in Paris, Google Chairman Eric Schmidt stated that he believes automation will create more jobs, not eliminate them. I think he’s wrong, and I hope he’s wrong. Disagreeing with the Chairman of the most advanced AI company in the…