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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
The EV and Autonomy Winter Shows Signs of Thawing
Tesla posted a surprising profit margin in the September quarter while guiding the December quarter and 2025 deliveries well ahead of expectations. Additionally, I believe Cybercab will be a measurable boost to deliveries, accounting for about 15% of deliveries by 2032. Putting these together, we're seeing signs that EV growth is returning, the most critical piece to the 3-year Tesla investment case.
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
The ‘Is Tesla a Tech or Car Company?’ Debate Is Over
On the surface, the waiting game will continue for TSLA investors as the Cybercab and Optimus are still years away. Beneath the surface, the "We, Robot" event posed a challenge for traditional automakers as Tesla showcased an innovation edge that puts an end to the "Is Tesla a tech or car company?" debate.
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Ridesharing
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
The FSD Waiting Game Is Worth the Wait
I’ve had a week to process the “We, Robot” event, including conversations with several industry players and am left with 4 takeaways. 1) The world needs autonomy. 2) It’s going to take longer than I thought to get there. 3) Once the Robotaxi fleet is nationwide, it could add +20% to Tesla’s operating income. 4) Tesla's biggest opportunity lies in unsupervised FSD driving more consumer sales.
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Ridesharing
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
“We, Robot” Event Preview
Tesla's "We, Robot" event is Thursday, October 10 at 10p ET. The two key topics orbiting the event include the number of vehicles they'll announce and timing of production. I'm looking for 3 vehicles (most are expecting two) and I believe we'll only hear production timing on the Model 2, which I expect to begin late in 2025. This timing is a few months later than what Elon's comments suggested on the June earnings call. The one wild card could be the more affordable Model 2 is actually a stripped down Model 3, which would be viewed as a negative by investors.
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Ridesharing
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Tesla Deliveries Return To Growth
The fact that TSLA initially dropped 6% on the September deliveries, which were essentially in line with the Street, suggests there was something more concerning in the report, possibly related to inventories. I have a different view and see the results as a win for the company given they mark a return to growth for the first time in nine months, despite multiple headwinds. As for next year's deliveries, the timing of a new model will have a measurable impact. Beyond 2025, growth should ramp to above 20%.
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Updated EV Adoption Estimates
This note provides Deepwater’s updated timeline of EV adoption in the United States. Previously, we had estimated that by 2030 50% of new car sales in the US would be fully electric. We now believe by 2030 only 25% of new car sales will be EVs. We expect the industry to cross the 50% threshold between 2035 and 2036. As for Tesla, we're expecting total 2030 deliveries of 4.5m, compared to the Street at 3.6m (FactSet).
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Ridesharing
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Tesla’s Heavy Bet on the Future of Autonomy Is a Worthwhile Waiting Game
Tesla’s stock declined 12% on June earnings as profitability dipped and the timing of Robotaxi got pushed out by 6-12 months. Musk said it best when he boiled down the TSLA investment case to a simple question; Do you believe the company will deliver on the promise of autonomy? Our view is that potential is within reach, and by late 2027 we should start to see FSD adoption, and the fleet business begin to build. Beyond FSD, the company looks to add licensing of FSD to other car makers and scale Optimus, both of which will take 5-10 years to add to the bottom line.
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Early Robotaxi Event Preview
While it's still more than two months away, I'm sharing my early predictions for the "Robotaxi Event". I expect three vehicles to be revealed, including Robotaxi, Model 2 and Cybervan (tailored to the ride-hailing vision). I expect initial production ramps could start as soon as summer of 2025, with FSD approval playing a large factor in the timing. These vehicles fit into Elon's vision that they need to solve autonomy to unlock shareholder value.
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Ridesharing
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Investing in TSLA Comes Down to Faith
Tesla had a difficult March quarter, reporting the first year over year revenue decline (9%) since Mar-20. Most of the business metrics suggest 2024 will be a difficult year for the company. That said, shares of TSLA rose 11% given the company's announcement that the next generation vehicle will come about 9 months earlier than expected, along with optimism for a sales rebound this year, and the promise around FSD. Putting it together, investing in Tesla comes down to a belief in the company's ability to convert that vision into reality. We remain optimistic.
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Tesla
Gene Munster
Deepwater Frontier Tech Survey 2024
Deepwater’s first annual Frontier Tech Survey measures the American public’s viewpoint on emerging technologies, including AI, Electrification & Automation, the Creator Economy, and Health-Tech. Key Takeaways: AI – General usage and awareness remains low; opinions are mixed when it comes…
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Apple
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Artificial Intelligence
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Augmented Reality
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Autonomous Vehicles
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Frontier Tech
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Google
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Health
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Meta
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Microsoft
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Netflix
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Neurable
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Neurotech
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Nvidia
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Redwood Materials
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Spatial Computing
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Tech Addiction
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Tesla
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TikTok
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Virtual Reality
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Wearables
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Tesla’s Dark Chapter Will Test Investor Patience
Tesla's December results and outlook effectively pushed back the positive inflection point in the business by a year. Now it looks to be the second half of 2025 before revenue growth will accelerate. In the near-term, shares will likely drift lower in what will be a vacuum of good news. By mid-year, details of the next-gen platform will arrive and anticipation of new models should mark a positive turning point in TSLA shares. Bigger picture: as traditional auto retreats from EVs, Tesla remains in attack mode.
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Tesla
Gene Munster, Brian Baker
Tesla Preview: Margins Stabilize in 2024, Competitive Lead Expands
For Tesla earnings it's all about the margins. While I expect a slight improvement quarter over quarter, I believe the outlook for margins in 2024 will be for stabilization, not expansion. In 2025 I see margins rising back above 20%. As for deliveries, they grew at 38% in 2023 and are expected to grow at 17% in 2024, accelerating to 24% growth in 2025. I'm also looking for growth to step up next year.
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Tesla
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