China’s saber-rattling will likely have little to no effect on Big Tech, as most of those companies have already been banned or exited the region. Apple and Tesla stand out as the most exposed—Apple risks brand damage that could hurt iPhone sales, while Tesla faces supply chain disruptions that could hinder production in both China and the U.S.

Meanwhile, the EU is threatening to wield the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which could lead to anything from trade restrictions to outright bans on U.S. products. With such a wide range of possible outcomes, estimating the impact is nearly impossible.

Apple

• China: The App Store in China contributes about 1% of Apple’s overall revenue and 4% of its Services revenue. While Chinese regulation of the App Store would have minimal financial impact, it adds to Apple’s existing headwinds in the region. More concerning is potential brand damage from escalating tensions, which could further impact iPhone sales—China accounts for nearly 20% of iPhone sales.
• EU: Europe makes up about 28% of Apple’s total revenue, and as mentioned above, the range of potential outcomes is wide.

Tesla

• China: Over a third of Tesla’s sales come from China, and roughly half of its vehicles are manufactured in Shanghai. While Tesla has not been directly targeted by Chinese tariffs, it remains vulnerable to disruptions in the automotive supply chain. Its worth noting that Tesla would likely avoid direct impact if China imposed tariffs on U.S. auto imports, as its vehicles are produced domestically.
• EU: Nearly 20% of Tesla’s sales come from Europe, with Gigafactory Berlin accounting for 15–25% of production.

Microsoft

• China: Minimal impact, as Microsoft generates less than 2% of its overall revenue from the region due to software piracy. As for Azure, while is technically available in China (hosted outside of China), it’s business accounts for a fraction of a percent of overall revenue.
• EU:  Potential regulatory scrutiny over Azure cloud services and software licensing practices.

Google

• China: It’s almost comical that China is considering regulating Google—since Google is effectively banned there.
• EU: Possible penalties related to data privacy, advertising practices, and monopolistic behavior, particularly targeting Google Ads and Search.

Amazon

• China: Amazon effectively exited China in 2019 when it shut down its domestic marketplace, which it had acquired (Joyo) for $75M in 2004. As for AWS operations in China are minuscule.
• EU: Potential restrictions on marketplace operations, data handling practices, and antitrust investigations could impact European sales and logistics.

Nvidia

• China: China is actually a fan of the company and wants more Nvidia chips, not fewer. However, access to Nvidia’s advanced chips could become a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations.
• EU: While Nvidia is less exposed, European regulators could scrutinize semiconductor pricing or acquisitions. Given high demand for Nvidia’s chips, significant regulatory action seems unlikely.

Meta

• China: Meta’s products are not available in China.
• EU: Europe accounts for 24% of Meta’s total revenue. While stricter regulations or fines related to data privacy, advertising, and user tracking are possible, it is highly unlikely that the EU would ban Instagram, Facebook, or WhatsApp.

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