We asked Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok 15 questions about upcoming events to determine which models are most effective at looking into the future. This note is centered on “predictions” in the balance of 2024, which we’ll cover as they unfold. Overall, we found ChatGPT and Grok were best at giving a clear prediction. The good news is time will determine the winner.
Which team will win the gold medal for women’s all-around team gymnastics in the 2024 Olympics?
- Gemini: USA
- ChatGPT: USA
- Claude: USA
- Grok: USA
My take: Not surprising. We weren’t able to find traditional betting odds for the women’s gymnastics event.
Who will win the gold medal for the men’s 100-meter dash at the 2024 Olympics?
- Gemini: Noah Lyles (USA)
- ChatGPT: Fred Kerley (USA)
- Claude: Fred Kerley (USA)
- Grok: Noah Lyles (USA)
My take: Surprise pick with Fred Kerley. Betting odds favor Noah Lyles, followed by Kishane Thompson (JAM) and Oblique Seville (JAM). Fred Kerley did not appear as a top five contender on the betting sites.
Which country will have the most gold medals in the 2024 Olympics, and how many?
- Gemini: USA, 43
- ChatGPT: USA, 37
- Claude: USA, 39
- Grok: USA, 37
My take: Oddsmakers have the USA with top gold medal count, with the over/under at 39.5.
Which Major League Baseball team will win the 2024 world series?
- Gemini: Dodgers
- ChatGPT: Dodgers
- Claude: Dodgers
- Grok: Dodgers
My take: Oddsmakers favor the Dodgers at +300 (which means you have to bet $100 to win $300), followed by the Phillies at +480 and the Yankees at +500.
Will Biden be the 2024 democratic candidate for the presidential election?
- Gemini: Would not answer
- ChatGPT: Likely
- Claude: Likely
- Grok: No
My take: Oddsmakers have Joe Biden favored at -159 (which means you have to bet $159 to win $100), followed by Kamala Harris at +340.
Who will win the 2024 presidential election in the US?
- Gemini: Would not answer
- ChatGPT: Biden
- Claude: Biden
- Grok: Trump
My take: Trump is heavily favored at -169 while Biden is at +520.
What US based publicly traded company will have the highest market cap in 2024?
- Gemini: Microsoft
- ChatGPT: Apple
- Claude: Apple
- Grok: Microsoft
My take: Currently, Apple is the highest market cap, 2% above Microsoft. Don’t rule out Nvidia with a market cap 8% below Apple.
How many tech companies will be valued over $2.5T at the end of 2024?
- Gemini: 2
- ChatGPT: 3
- Claude: 3
- Grok: 1
My take: Two of the four models are expecting the AI trade to slow dramatically this year. Currently, there are three companies with current market caps that are, on average, 35% above the $2.5T threshold. In other words, Gemini is expecting one of those companies to be down more than 35% in the back half of the year, and Grok is expecting two companies to be down 35%+.
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
- Gemini: Yes
- ChatGPT: No
- Claude: No
- Grok: Yes
My take: This is a disturbing prediction given it could impact billions of lives and change the global order. This also explains why Gemini and Grok believe we will end the year with only one or two tech companies (there are currently 3) with market caps above $2.5T. The only way to slow the AI investment trade is China invading Taiwan.
Will Tesla’s FSD come out of beta in 2024?
- Gemini: No
- ChatGPT: No
- Claude: No
- Grok: Yes
My take: Looks like Grok puts a higher weight on Elon’s comments.
How many vehicles will Tesla announce at the August 8 event?
- Gemini: 1
- ChatGPT: 2
- Claude: 2
- Grok: 3
My take: I expect three vehicles.
Will Tim Cook announce he will be stepping down as CEO of Apple in 2024?
- Gemini: No
- ChatGPT: No
- Claude: No
- Grok: Yes
My take: I’m not expecting anything in 2024, but I do believe we’ll see some movement in 2025 when Cook turns 65. Bezos was 57 and Gates was 53 when they stepped down.
What will Apple’s active installed base be at the end of 2024?
- Gemini: 2.4B
- ChatGPT: 2.5B
- Claude: 2.3B
- Grok: 2.2B
My take: In December 2023, Apple announced its active base surpassed 2.2B, and grew to a new undisclosed high in the March 2024 quarter. I estimate Apple will end the year at 2.35B.
What will iPhone revenue be in CY24?
- Gemini: $200B
- ChatGPT: $240B
- Claude: $205B
- Grok: $126.1B
My take: FactSet consensus calls for $198B. These numbers are all over the place. There’s little chance that GPT’s $240B prediction is in the cards given it implies 20% upside to current Street estimates. Conversely, Grok’s $126B is highly unlikely. I expect iPhone revenue to finish the year at $220B, representing 10% upside to consensus.
What will be the year over year growth rate for Apple services in CY24?
- Gemini: 11%
- ChatGPT: 6%
- Claude: 12%
- Grok: 15-19%
My take: Services grew at 14% YoY in March 2024, and the Street is expecting ~12.2% in CY24. I expect it to be up 13% this year.